Surging Labor Market Bumps Odds Of U.S. Recession Down To 15%

Goldman Sachs has lowered the odds of the United States slipping into a recession in the next 12 months by five percentage points to 15%, following the latest employment report that showed better-than-expected data.

U.S. job gains increased by the most in six months in September and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the Labor Department reported on Friday.

The September employment report has “reset the labor market narrative” and calmed fears about the labor demand “weakening too quickly to prevent the unemployment rate from trending higher,” Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius said in a note on Sunday.

The Wall Street brokerage maintained its forecast of consecutive 25 basis points cuts to reach a terminal rate of 3.25-3.5% by June 2025.

“We now see much less risk of another 50-bps rate cut,” Hatzius said.

The Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by 50 bps in September to the 4.75%-5.00% range, its first rate reduction since 2020.

Financial markets boosted the odds of a quarter-percentage-point reduction in November to 95.2% from 71.5% before the report, CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed.

While the job numbers have been volatile, they can likely be taken at face value as there are no clear indications for further persistent negative revisions, the Wall Street brokerage said.

“More broadly, we see no obvious reason for job growth to be mediocre at a time when job openings are high and GDP (gross domestic product) is growing strongly,” Hatzius said.

However, October is likely to be a particularly complicated month, with both a hurricane and a major strike threatening to depress payrolls, the brokerage cautioned.

(Reporting by Kanchana Chakravarty in Bengaluru; Editing by Janane Venkatraman)