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Artificial intelligence is fast becoming a defining force in where jobs, wages, and economic opportunity will concentrate in the future of work — and new research suggests the United States is pulling further ahead as a result.
According to a recent Financial Times survey of economists, more than three-quarters expect the U.S. to maintain or widen its productivity lead over other advanced economies, driven largely by AI adoption, deep capital markets, and relatively low energy costs. Nearly half of respondents believe that dominance will increase in the years ahead. The survey polled economists based in the U.S., U.K., the Eurozone, and China.
Productivity growth — the ability to generate more output from the same amount of work — matters because it ultimately determines how much companies can pay workers and invest in growth. It shapes how quickly wages rise, how resilient hiring remains during downturns, and where high-quality jobs ultimately cluster. Economists increasingly see AI as the accelerant that could widen those differences across regions.
U.S. labor productivity rose roughly 10 percent between 2019 and 2024, buoyed by rapid technological advances and pandemic-era shifts in how work is organized. Over the same period, productivity in the U.K. and Eurozone largely stagnated, according to OECD data cited by the Financial Times (FT).
For workers, this divergence is not abstract. Economists argue that regions leading in AI-driven productivity are better positioned to support higher wages, stronger hiring over time, and more resilient labor markets.
Jumana Saleheen, head of Vanguard’s investment strategy group in Europe, told the FT that the U.S. is likely to widen its advantage over peer economies, pointing to labor flexibility and leadership in emerging technologies.
By contrast, Europe faces structural barriers that are increasingly difficult to ignore. Survey respondents pointed to rigid labor markets, fragmented infrastructure, and research spending still concentrated in traditional industries rather than frontier technologies.
Several economists warned that these factors could limit job creation and wage growth even as AI adoption accelerates elsewhere.
The U.S. advantage is reinforced by a sharp split in business investment. U.S. investment levels are significantly higher than before the pandemic, while investment in the Eurozone has declined, according to Oxford Economics data referenced in the FT analysis. That gap matters because investment is what turns AI tools into workplace productivity gains.
Still, the outlook is not without risks. Some economists cautioned that today’s surge in AI spending could reflect a bubble, raising the possibility of painful corrections that would ripple through labor markets.
Others warned that trade protectionism, immigration restrictions, and political instability could eventually undermine U.S. productivity gains.
Even so, the consensus remains that AI is reshaping the geography of opportunity. As one economist quoted by the FT put it, the U.S. is starting from a “position of strength” in the productivity race.
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Where AI investment flows, so too will the future of work — unevenly, and with lasting consequences for workers and employers alike.
The implication for employers is that AI alone is not the differentiator; access to capital, regulatory flexibility, and the ability to reorganize work quickly will determine whether productivity gains show up on the balance sheet or stall in pilot programs.
