Quality Job Outlook Falls in Shaky Gallup Economic Confidence Index

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index (ECI) experienced a notable drop in April 2024 — falling to -29 from -20 in March marking the first decline in seven months.  

According to Gallup, this downturn in confidence is due in-part to surging gas prices, persistent inflation, and elevated interest rates, all of which have added to a growing sense of unease among American workers. 

The Economic Confidence Index (ECI), which gauges Americans’ views on the economy’s current status and future outlook on a scale from +100 to -100, has experienced declines in both its current conditions (dropping to -20 from -9) and economic outlook (falling to -38 from -30).  

These figures, drawn from a Gallup poll conducted from April 1–22, show growing concerns among Americans about the country’s economic path. 

According to Gallup, “When asked about the economy’s direction, 29% of Americans, down from 33% in March, say conditions are getting better, while 67% (up from 63%) say they’re getting worse.” 

It’s also worth noting that political affiliations and the upcoming U.S. election are influencing economic outlook — with supporters of the current U.S. president generally showing more optimism than other political associations.  

However, the present ECI data also poses a challenge for President Biden, as Gallup’s historical trends indicate that low economic confidence levels can negatively affect a president’s chances of reelection. 

Notably, the quality job outlook also appears to have fallen since January, from 55% of Americans saying it’s a good time to find a quality job to only 49% in April. Despite the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting an increase in employment by 303,000 in March, the decline in job market optimism is the lowest since it was 43% in April 2021. The low levels of job optimism also coincide with news of layoffs, particularly in the tech sector.  

Policymakers and business leaders should collaborate to quickly address workers’ concerns and instill confidence in the workforce this year.