A new study from the National Foundation for American Policy projects that the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown will reduce the U.S. workforce by nearly 7 million people by 2028, and by over 15 million by 2035. This significant drop could have wide-ranging impacts on the economy and labor market.
The reduction in workers threatens to slow economic growth and shrink the nation’s production of goods and services. As fewer people enter the workforce, industries such as manufacturing, healthcare, agriculture, and energy may struggle to find enough employees, especially as the population ages.
Legal and Illegal Immigration Changes Both Play a Role
The study breaks down the projected loss: roughly 2.8 million fewer workers by 2028 due to restrictions on legal immigration, and 4 million fewer from crackdowns on undocumented immigrants.
By 2035, about one-third of the total workforce decline would be linked to legal immigration policies, including pauses on refugee admissions, travel bans, and tighter rules on international students.
Policy Enforcement and Political Context
Since taking office, the Trump administration has intensified border enforcement and expanded deportation efforts targeting undocumented immigrants, including over 1.2 million people previously protected under temporary programs. Legal immigration policies have also been tightened, affecting refugee and student admissions.
Administration officials argue that these policies will encourage growth in the native workforce by tapping into underutilized American talent. They point to high numbers of young adults not currently employed or in education as an opportunity to fill labor needs with domestic workers.
Economic Growth and Federal Debt Concerns
The study warns that these immigration restrictions could reduce annual GDP growth by about half a percentage point through 2035 and increase federal debt. Notably, the analysis does not include potential productivity losses from limiting access to high-skilled foreign workers, which could further dampen economic progress.
Deportation Goals Could Deepen Workforce Decline
While the study’s projections are based on current enforcement levels, the administration aims to deport up to 1 million immigrants annually — far surpassing past records. If achieved, this could further shrink the labor force beyond current estimates.
How policymakers balance immigration controls with workforce needs remains a critical issue for the nation’s future.
