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Americans grew more worried about the future of the job market in September, while at the same time bumping up projections for the future path of near-term inflation, a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said on Tuesday.
Respondents to the bank’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations marked up expectations that overall unemployment will be higher in a year relative to August, amid a rise in the expected probability of losing one’s job. But respondents also see better odds of finding new work in the next three months in the event of an unexpected job loss.
Concern about the future of the job market came as households viewed their current financial situations more favorably while downgrading “slightly” where they see themselves in a year, the bank said. As of September, households reported a cutback in future spending expectations amid mixed views on future earnings and income levels.
Meanwhile, the report also found in September that the expected level of inflation a year from now stands at 3.4% from August’s 3.2%, while three-year-ahead expected inflation held steady at 3%. September’s five-year-ahead expected inflation reading also stood at 3% from the prior month’s 2.9%. The Fed’s inflation target is 2% and actual inflation readings have exceeded that level for several years.
The September report also noted that year-ahead food price expectations rose to their highest level since March 2023.
DATA DESERT
The New York Fed report, which is most closely watched for its readings on the expected path of inflation, may garner elevated interest amid the absence of economic data tied to the government shutdown. The survey, which ran over the month of September, was completed before the shutdown took effect.
The dearth of data means that as Fed officials approach their policy meeting at the end of the month, they do so without the usual range of statistics critical to driving policy deliberations. Officials have already missed what should have been the release of the September employment report on Friday.
The Fed cut its overnight target rate range last month by a quarter percentage point to between 4% and 4.25% and it is expected to do so again at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for October 28-29. Analysts foresee another easing because privately produced data continues to point to weakness in hiring, and offsetting the risk of job market deterioration was a key reason why the central bank cut rates in September.
The challenge for Fed officials is that they are lowering the cost of short-term borrowing at a time when inflation remains above target and is expected to accelerate over the remainder of the year as President Donald Trump’s tariff surge works its way through prices.
Fed officials have noted that even with a rate cut, the overall level of short-term rates is still weighing on the economy and countering inflation. And while a number of policymakers remain skeptical of the need for further cuts, a number have acknowledged that the impact on inflation from tariffs has not been as bad as they were expecting.
Speaking on September 29, New York Fed President John Williams said “we have a balancing act here” between getting inflation down and supporting a job market that “has been gradually softening over the past year.” He also noted, “the tariff effects have been smaller than most people thought, and there doesn’t seem to be any signs of inflationary pressures building.”
Meanwhile, Boston Fed leader Susan Collins said in an interview on September 30 that while more rate cuts are possible, easing “too quickly and certainly announcing, oh yeah, we’re just going to…keep going until we get to neutral, that seems to me to be a scenario where the risks to inflation go up.”
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The New York Fed data “tugs on both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate, but shouldn’t pull policymakers off track from lowering interest rates,” said Oren Klachkin, financial market economist with Nationwide. “We anticipate an additional 50 basis points of Fed rate cuts before year-end and more easing in 2026.”
(Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
