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The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits increased last week, economists estimated on Thursday, and more people were collecting unemployment checks in early October amid easing labor market conditions.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose to a seasonally adjusted 232,000 for the week ended October 18 from 220,000 the prior week, economists at Citigroup and Nationwide calculated. Goldman Sachs estimated claims at 227,000 while JPMorgan put the number at 229,000.
Claims data was unavailable for Tennessee, Massachusetts and Colorado. But economists made assumptions for the three states, similar to what the Labor Department would normally do when data is not available.
States continue to collect the claims figures, submitting them to the Labor Department despite a shutdown of the U.S. government that has caused an economic data blackout.
Economists have taken the unadjusted data to make estimates using seasonal adjustment factors the government published earlier this year, providing some view of the labor market.
Prior to the shutdown, now in its third week, signs of labor market softness were mounting, driven mostly by lackluster hiring that economists have blamed on the Trump administration’s trade policy. The estimated claims have stayed within their pre-shutdown range, suggesting there has not been a material pickup in layoffs.   Â
“The latest state-level jobless claims data suggests the labor market remains steady and that layoffs remain low,” said Oren Klachkin, financial market economist at Nationwide. “Overall, initial claims remain subdued and aren’t flagging an imminent economic downturn.”
Claims by Federal Workers Have Spiked
But there has been a spike in applications by federal employees in recent weeks, likely related to the more than 150,000 workers who dropped off payrolls at the end of September after accepting buyouts.
Furloughed federal employees can apply for unemployment benefits, but they would have to reimburse the program when they receive their back pay. Claims for federal workers are reported under a different program. The latest data for the program was not immediately available.Â
The regular claims data covered the period during which the government would have surveyed employers for the nonfarm payrolls component of October’s employment report.Â
Economists did not view the shutdown as negatively impacting the quality of October’s payrolls count.Â
They, however, believed the delay could improve the response rate to the survey. A low response rate has been blamed for large revisions to payrolls data.Â
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The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates again next week to aid the labor market.
The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased to a seasonally adjusted 1.942 million during the week ending October 11 from 1.928 million, Citigroup estimated. Calculations for these so-called continuing claims by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Nationwide were within that ballpark. Â
The elevated continued claims readings suggest unemployed people are experiencing difficulties landing new positions. The jobless rate rose to nearly a four-year high of 4.3% in August.
“This likely reflects the low hiring environment, as typically hiring would pick up in October for the holiday season,” said Gisela Young, an economist at Citigroup. “Some indications suggest holiday hiring may be less than usual this year.”Â
(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani;)
