U.S. CRE Surges 28% In October As Deal Volume Hits $34.6B

October saw $34.6B in U.S. CRE deals, 21% of which were office deals, even as forward-looking activity indicators hint at slower months ahead.

U.S. commercial real estate transactions reached $34.6B in October, a 28% increase from September, according to new data from LightBox. Much of the momentum came from the midcap segment: transactions between $50M and $100M totaled $6.6B, with 94 deals, up from 87 the month before and well above this year’s average of 65.

Large deals over $100M declined slightly to 52, down from 58 in September, though still higher than the year-to-date average of 44. LightBox said the mix reflects a market showing more equilibrium as activity spreads across product types.

Forward Indicators Point to Slower Months Ahead

LightBox’s CRE Activity Index — its gauge of future deal flow — moved in the opposite direction. The index fell from 116.8 in September to 106.2 in October, a drop the firm linked to the prolonged government shutdown that extended for 43 days before wrapping earlier this month.

The dip suggests near-term dealmaking could cool despite the recent surge in closings.

Multifamily Leads; Land Sales See a Jump

Multifamily assets represented 24% of October’s completed transactions. Office deals accounted for 21%, retail for 20%, and land sales for 11%, marking an 8% month-over-month increase for land activity.

Medical properties and data centers also played a notably larger role in overall volume.