Dr. Gleb Tsipursky – The Office Whisperer
Nirit Cohen – WorkFutures
Angela Howard – Culture Expert
Drew Jones – Design & Innovation
Jonathan Price – CRE & Flex Expert
The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased by the most in nearly 4-1/2 years last week, but the surge likely does not suggest a material weakening in labor market conditions, as the claims data are volatile around this time of year.
The larger-than-expected rise in initial weekly jobless claims reported by the Labor Department on Thursday reversed the sharp drop in the prior week, which had pushed filings to a three-year low.
Economists said adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations is always a challenge during the start of the holiday season, and recommended focusing on the four-week moving average to get a better read of the labor market. The four-week average of claims suggested labor market conditions remained stable.
“The bulk of this week-to-week volatility is seasonal noise,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets.
“On an underlying basis, nothing has changed, but if anything, we would have to say that initial claims are running slightly below the long-established trend, one of several data points that refutes (Federal Reserve) Chairman (Jerome) Powell’s characterization of a shaky labor market.”
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped 44,000, the biggest increase since mid-July of 2021, to a seasonally adjusted 236,000 for the week ended December 6, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 220,000 claims for the latest week.
The four-week moving average of claims, which irons out seasonal fluctuations, rose 2,000 to 216,750 last week. Economists continue to describe the labor market as being in a “no-fire, no-hire” state despite a raft of layoff announcements by large corporations, including Amazon.
“It’s a little surprising that recent layoff announcements haven’t translated into a shift higher in initial claims,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
“It may be that some workers who have lost their jobs have received generous severance packages or have found other employment, although that is more difficult in the current labor market with a depressed rate of hiring.”
Stocks on Wall Street were trading mostly lower. The dollar eased versus a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields fell.
The Fed on Wednesday cut its benchmark overnight interest rate by another 25 basis points to the 3.50%-3.75% range. The U.S. central bank has cut rates three times this year. Powell told reporters the labor market “seems to have significant downside risks,” noting there was an overcounting of nonfarm payrolls, which policymakers believed was still persisting.
In September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated 911,000 fewer jobs were created in the 12 months through March than previously estimated, the equivalent of 76,000 fewer jobs per month. The BLS will publish the final payrolls benchmark revision in February along with January’s employment report.
More stories for you
The employment report for November, delayed by the 43-day government shutdown, will be released next Tuesday. It will incorporate October’s nonfarm payrolls data. The unemployment rate for October, however, will not be available because the shutdown prevented the collection of data for the household survey, from which the jobless rate is calculated.
Trade Deficit Narrows in September
The labor market has stagnated amid low supply and demand for workers, which economists blamed on reduced immigration and import tariffs. The adoption of artificial intelligence for some job roles is also eroding demand for labor.
The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, dropped 99,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.838 million during the week ending November 29, the claims report showed.
Some of the decline in the so-called continuing claims reflected the difficulties of seasonally adjusting the data around the Thanksgiving holiday and also could be the result of people exhausting their eligibility for benefits, which is limited to 26 weeks in most states.
Continuing claims are consistent with a gradual rise in the unemployment rate, which was at a four-year high of 4.4% in September.
Despite doubts about the labor market, the economy appears to have grown solidly in the third quarter. A separate report from the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau showed the trade deficit contracted 10.9% to $52.8 billion in September, the lowest level since June 2020, as goods exports soared and imports rose marginally.
Exports climbed 3.0% to $289.3 billion in September, partly reflecting the dollar’s weakness against the currencies of the United States’ main trade partners.
Goods exports surged 4.9% to $187.6 billion. A $6.1 billion increase in non-monetary gold, which is excluded in the calculation of gross domestic product, accounted for the $8.8 billion jump in exports. Shipments of consumer goods hit a record high, though capital goods exports fell, pulled down by a $2.3 billion drop in computers.
Imports rose 0.6% to $342.1 billion. Goods imports advanced 0.6% to $266.6 billion, lifted by consumer goods, mostly pharmaceutical preparations, after President Donald Trump threatened more tariffs on these items.
Capital goods imports, however, decreased, which does not bode well for business investment. Imports of motor vehicles, parts and engines were the lowest since November 2022.
The goods trade deficit compressed 8.2% to $79.0 billion, the lowest level since September 2020, suggesting trade likely contributed to GDP growth in the third quarter. Inventories likely also provided a lift to GDP growth last quarter.
A separate report from the Census Bureau showed wholesale inventories rebounded 0.5% in September. But the increase in wholesale stocks also reflected slowing domestic demand. Tariffs have raised the prices of goods, and consumers are increasingly worried about job security, which has led them to cut spending.
The Atlanta Fed estimated GDP increased at a 3.6% annualized rate in the third quarter. The government will release its first estimate of third-quarter GDP on December 23, a delay prompted by the shutdown. The economy grew at a 3.8% pace in the April-June quarter.
“While trade hawks will likely welcome the news, we aren’t sure we’ll see consistently smaller trade deficits going forward,” said Oren Klachkin, financial market economist at Nationwide.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Paul Simao)
