Commercial Real Estate Debt Coming Due Falls 9% as New Loans Rebound

Banks expect a lending rebound as fewer loans expire, but $167B in office debt and stubborn interest rates could still shake the market.

Commercial and multifamily mortgage maturities are projected to drop 9% year over year to about $875 billion, according to a Mortgage Bankers Association forecast. The group expects maturities to keep declining through 2031 as refinancing activity spreads repayments into later years.

Lending is rising at the same time. Lenders are expected to originate $805 billion in commercial mortgages this year, up 27% from 2025, including $399 billion in multifamily loans, a roughly 21% increase, according to BisNow.

Office Sector Still Faces Concentrated Risk

Despite the broader decline in maturities, office properties remain exposed. About $167 billion in office loans mature this year and another $123 billion in 2027, before falling to $76 billion in 2028.

Economic Outlook Limits Rate Relief

The association expects economic growth to slow from 2.3% last year to 1.9% this year and 1.7% in 2027. Unemployment is projected to average 4.5% this year. With inflation still above target, only one federal rate cut is expected, while long-term rates may remain pressured higher.

Workplace Impact

Fewer near-term maturities reduce immediate distress across commercial properties, but the large volume of office debt still ties property values to workplace demand and occupancy trends.