New applications for US unemployment benefits drifted close to 57-year lows last week and layoffs decreased in September, suggesting labor market stability persisted even as employers remained cautious about boosting hiring.
The report from the Labor Department on Thursday joined a raft of other data, including robust consumer spending in August, in painting a rosy picture of the economy despite rising headwinds from the US-Israeli war with Iran, which has driven diesel prices to record highs. Economists said robust corporate profits growth and resilient domestic demand were shielding workers from layoffs, for now.
“At some point, elevated energy costs and material prices will force firms to lay off marginal workers to protect profit margins, but there is no sign of that here,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 197,000 for the week ended September 26, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 200,000 claims for the latest week.
Claims have held below the 200,000 level for three straight weeks and are near levels last seen in 1969. Some economists said historically low layoffs, if sustained, could raise questions about the labor market overheating, with monetary policy implications.
“We do not appear to be close to that result yet, but this is a new risk that the FOMC appears to be watching,” said Stephen Stanley, chief US economist at Santander US Capital Markets, referring to the Fed’s policy-setting committee.
A separate report from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed planned layoffs by US-based employers dropped 18% to 43,281 in September. Announced job cuts were down 20% from a year ago. So far this year, employers have announced 573,195 layoffs, down 39% compared to the first nine months of 2025. Planned job cuts fell 43% in the third quarter.
Companies In Wait-And-See Mode
Employers are, however, in no rush to increase headcount. Hiring plans increased by 90,787 last month. While that was sharply up from 12,325 in August, hiring intentions were down 23% from a year ago, and the tally was the lowest for any September since 2011.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas said a surge in seasonal hiring usually seen starting in September was absent.
“Companies are in a wait-and-see period right now,” said Andy Challenger, chief revenue officer at Challenger, Gray & Christmas. “Employers are facing high energy costs, an uncertain war in Iran, a rate hike that could make hiring more expensive, plus the likelihood of surging healthcare costs.”
The Federal Reserve last month raised its overnight benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4.00% range, the first hike in three years, and flagged further increases in borrowing costs in the months ahead. The odds of another rate hike this month were diminished by cooler-than-expected inflation readings in August and July.
Financial markets priced in a roughly 37.1% chance of further monetary policy tightening at the October 27-28 meeting, down from about 68.6% a week ago, CME’s FedWatch tool showed.
The dollar advanced versus a basket of currencies. US Treasury prices fell, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note hitting the highest level in 24 years.
The claims report showed the number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, dropped 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.701 million during the week ended September 19. That was the lowest level in the so-called continuing claims since April 2023.
Still, some people who have lost their jobs are experiencing long spells of unemployment. A survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday showed the share of consumers saying jobs were “plentiful” dropped in September to the lowest level since February 2021, while the proportion who viewed jobs as “hard to get” was the highest in more than 5-1/2 years.
The claims data have no bearing on September’s employment report as they fall outside the survey period. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 90,000 jobs last month after advancing 162,000 in August, a Reuters survey of economists showed. The unemployment rate is forecast holding steady at 4.1% for a third straight month, in part held down by a smaller labor force because of retirements and an immigration crackdown.
(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci )
