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A recession this year is less likely than previously expected, according to economists.
This positive sentiment comes from the Wall Street Journal’s recent survey of economists, which reveals that the likelihood of a recession in the coming year fell from 48% reported in October 2023 to 39% in January.
This trend, while positive, still reflects a challenging economic environment for the workforce. According to the Wall Street Journal, economists predict a modest economic growth rate of 1% in 2024. This slower-than-usual growth is predicted by experts to impact job growth and job security, as the labor market is expected to be squeezed.
It’s reported that the expected job growth rate for 2024 is significantly lower than in previous years — with an average of 64,000 new jobs per month, compared to 225,000 in 2023. This slowdown in job creation is likely to result in an increase in the unemployment rate, projected to rise from 3.7% to 4.3% by the end of the year, according to the WSJ report.
The data coincides with economic figures published by the United Nation that predicts two million additional people will join the job hunt over the next year. According to the UN there will be an “erosion of living standards” in many of the world’s wealthiest nations — primarily due to inflation. Although the inflation rates are declining in several major economies, the impact on living standards is expected to persist and contribute to greater inequality that undermines efforts made towards social justice.
The future of work will also be shaped by the uneven performance across different industries. It’s reported that fields like manufacturing, retail, and transportation are expected to face more challenges, while healthcare, leisure, and hospitality are predicted to see stronger job growth.
Additionally, many economists claim that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, and this could have a deeper impact on borrowing costs and investment opportunities in various fields — further influencing the job market.
