Artificial intelligence could displace roughly 15 million U.S. workers over time, according to Goldman Sachs, even as economists expect new jobs to emerge alongside the technology.
Joseph Briggs, who leads the bank’s global economics team, estimates about 9% of the U.S. workforce could be displaced as AI adoption expands across industries. He compared the scale of the transition to the technology-driven labor shifts of the late 1990s and early 2000s, with affected workers expected to move into different roles rather than exit the workforce permanently.
AI Is Already Affecting Some Industries
Briggs said AI is already slowing employment growth in sectors where adoption is most advanced, including technology, management consulting, and graphic design.
He estimates AI is reducing monthly job growth in those industries by between 10,000 and 15,000 positions. However, he argues the long-term impact should not be measured solely by jobs lost, noting that technological advances have historically created entirely new occupations alongside those they replace.
According to Goldman Sachs, the U.S. labor market already experiences significant turnover each year, with millions of jobs created and eliminated annually, providing capacity for workers to transition into new roles over time.
Hiring Shows Signs of Cooling
The discussion comes as the U.S. labor market shows signs of slowing.
The June employment report showed the economy added 57,000 jobs, below economists’ expectations, while earlier monthly figures were revised downward. Although the unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%, the decline was partly attributed to workers leaving the labor force.
As AI adoption accelerates, economists continue to debate whether the technology will primarily replace existing jobs or create enough new opportunities to offset workforce disruption.
