Artificial intelligence is beginning to leave a measurable mark on the labor market, though economists say its overall impact on unemployment remains relatively small.
A new report from Morgan Stanley (reported by MarketWatch) found AI has contributed an estimated 15 basis points to the U.S. unemployment rate, up from about 10 basis points in December 2025. While that represents a modest effect across the economy, the researchers say the trend has become more visible since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022.
AI-Exposed Industries Show Higher Unemployment
Morgan Stanley’s analysis found unemployment has risen faster in industries with greater exposure to AI than in those less affected by the technology. After accounting for broader economic factors, unemployment in AI-exposed industries is running about 50 basis points above normal.
The researchers noted that isolating AI’s impact remains difficult because other forces—including tariffs, monetary policy, immigration policy, and post-pandemic labor market conditions—are also influencing employment. Even so, they identified a consistent pattern linking higher AI exposure with greater labor market disruption.
The report also pointed to financial services, technology, and industrial companies as the sectors most frequently discussing AI adoption during corporate earnings calls.
Job Searches Are Taking Longer
The report found workers in AI-exposed occupations are spending more time unemployed after losing their jobs, suggesting it is becoming harder to move into new roles. Layoffs in those occupations have also increased.
Although the overall labor market remains relatively stable, the findings indicate AI-related disruption is becoming easier to detect at the occupation level rather than across the broader economy.
Young Workers Face the Greatest Risk
The strongest signs of disruption are appearing among younger workers.
According to the report, unemployment continued rising through the first half of 2026 for workers aged 22 to 27, making them the age group most affected by AI-related labor market changes.
The researchers also found that employees who remain in AI-exposed jobs are increasingly reporting changes to their day-to-day work as organizations integrate AI into more tasks.
