A four-year degree is becoming less central to a large share of U.S. jobs, but that does not mean every city offers the same opportunities to workers without one.
An analysis by Commercial Cafe of 36 major U.S. metropolitan areas found significant differences in how easily mid-skilled workers can increase their earnings, move between employers and reach higher-paying roles.
The study groups these labor markets into four types: “fortresses,” where workers tend to stay put; “churn engines,” where workers move frequently but may not gain much financially; “ladders,” where job changes can lead to advancement; and “institutional hubs,” where large organizations provide stability but often have higher barriers to entry.
Phoenix And Las Vegas Have Plenty Of Job Movement
Phoenix and Las Vegas stand out for high job-to-job movement.
Phoenix had a 27% job-to-job flow rate, with mid-skilled workers earning a median $52,035 in 2024. Median wages for these workers increased 38% between 2014 and 2024.
Las Vegas had an even higher job-to-job flow rate of 29%, the highest among the metros studied. But its workers saw weaker wage growth. Median pay for mid-skilled workers increased 26% over the decade to $47,880 in 2024.
The findings suggest that frequent job changes do not automatically translate into significant career advancement.
Miami And Austin Offer Stronger Paths Up
Miami falls into a different category, with the analysis finding stronger potential for upward mobility.
Median earnings for mid-skilled workers increased 39% between 2014 and 2024, reaching $50,499. The metro also had a 17% job-to-job flow rate, close to the 18% average among the larger metros analyzed.
Austin had a 15% job-to-job flow rate and 34% median wage growth over the decade, bringing median pay for mid-skilled workers to $50,886 in 2024.
Advanced manufacturing and defense employers, including Tesla, Samsung and BAE Systems, contribute to demand for specialized workers in Austin.
Orlando showed a similar pattern, with median mid-skilled wages rising 38% over the decade to $47,885.
Riverside Has High Demand But Less Mobility
Riverside, California, illustrates another type of labor market.
About 40% of employment in the metro is classified as mid-skilled, one of the highest shares in the study. Logistics and warehousing are major sources of employment.
Median wages for these workers increased from $40,977 in 2014 to $52,271 in 2024.
But only 11% of workers changed jobs during the period measured, suggesting relatively limited movement between employers. The analysis attributes that partly to the concentration of major employers and the fact that Riverside wages are competitive enough to reduce the incentive to commute to Los Angeles or San Diego.
Los Angeles also showed relatively low job mobility at 17%, but workers who did change jobs saw average wage increases of roughly 9% to 10%. Median mid-skilled wages rose 33% over the decade to $55,024.
Big Institutional Markets Offer Stability
New York, Washington, D.C., San Francisco and Chicago were classified as “institutional hubs,” where large employers such as government agencies, universities, financial institutions and healthcare systems employ significant numbers of mid-skilled workers.
These markets can offer stability and strong benefits, but many positions have higher entry requirements, including licenses or specialized credentials.
San Francisco had the highest 2024 median wage for mid-skilled workers among the four at $65,212, although wages grew 25% over the decade.
New York’s median reached $58,038 after 22% growth, while Chicago’s reached $54,793 following 31% growth.
Job mobility was relatively low in New York and San Francisco, at 15% in New York, while Chicago and Washington, D.C. were more dynamic.
