Experts Predict Glacial Job Market Growth Until 2033

The next decade of the labor market is expected to see slower growth as factors including AI, flexible work, and e-commerce platforms redefine roles across the U.S.

Economists predict the job market growth will slow dramatically over the next decade.

According to the latest projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the workforce is on a path to expand at an annual rate of just 0.4% through 2033. The annual growth rate for the previous 10 years was 1.3%.

Bloomberg reports that this anticipated slowdown is largely attributed to technological advancements spread across the workforce — specifically, the rise of e-commerce platforms and artificial intelligence (AI) — which are affecting employment dynamics and reducing the overall labor demand in traditional sectors such as retail and office jobs.

The slower growth rate encountered by the labor market will significantly influence economic planning and policymaking in the coming years. Experts believe these trends will lead to an increase in the demand for employees to be tech-savvy in AI tools and online platforms, and the need for policies to align with these trends will be high.

The high demand for AI-related skills is also leading both community colleges and universities to incorporate AI into their curricula.

The cooling job market is reflected in current market trends and rising employee demands for flexible work. A survey published by Bankrate found that nearly half (48%) of workers plan to look for new employment over the next year — prioritizing higher pay and more flexible work conditions. This figure is a modest decrease from 56% in March 2023 and shows a significant portion of the workforce remains proactive about seeking better opportunities, even as competition become tougher.

The majority (70%) of workers in the survey revealed some level of concern about job security, an apprehension escalated by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes that began in March 2022.

The economic measures, which were implemented to help curb inflation, have also coincided with revised job gains released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealing that the U.S. economy added 30% fewer jobs than what was initially reported from April 2023 through March 2024.

The combination of technological advancements and changing work preferences leads experts to believe the future of work will require both employees and employers to adopt a more flexible approach to work. Policymakers, in turn, will need to craft strategies that not only address the immediate challenges but also anticipate the long-term implications of these trends on employment and economic stability.