The U.S. job market cooled in October, according to LinkedIn’s November U.S. Jobs Report and consensus estimates, which show nonfarm payrolls increasing by about 40,000 jobs โ down from roughly 50,000 in September.ย
Excluding federal workers affected by the government shutdown, that modest gain is just enough to keep the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%.
Hiring Slows Across Most Sectors
Private-sector data from ADP showed a similar story, with employment up by 42,000. Gains in trade, transportation, and utilities (+47K) and healthcare (+26K) helped offset losses in information (โ17K) and professional and business services (โ15K). Healthcare and social work continue to drive most of this yearโs limited job growth.
On LinkedIn, hiring dipped 0.8% from September and is down nearly 6% from a year ago, with the biggest declines in government and professional services. Retail saw a seasonal bump (+6.8%), while healthcare hiring inched up (+1.6%) but remains slightly below last year.
Openings and Layoffs Indicate a Cooler Market
Employers appear to be pulling back. Job postings fell about 5% from September and are down more than 12% year-over-year, according to LinkedIn. Indeed reports a similar trend, with postings down 6.5% compared to October 2024.ย
Mentions of layoffs on LinkedIn rose 7%, and the separation rate โ which tracks quits โ slipped slightly from September.
Labor Market Still StableโฆFor Now
Despite slower hiring and fewer openings, thereโs little sign of a sharp downturn. The Chicago Fedโs unemployment nowcast suggests only minor softening in the labor market. Job seekers are applying for slightly fewer roles (applications per person fell 2%), hinting that most workers still feel relatively secure.
Overall, the data paints a picture of a job market thatโs cooling but not collapsing. Growth has slowed to its โbreakevenโ pace, where employment just keeps up with labor force growth.
