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Right on the heels of Labor Day, recent data shows a significant contraction in the U.S. labor force tied to reduced immigration under former President Trump’s policies. Between January and July, the U.S. lost approximately 1.2 million immigrant workers, according to Census Bureau data analyzed by the Pew Research Center. This drop includes both authorized and unauthorized immigrants and signals growing strain in sectors that historically rely heavily on foreign labor, according to CBS News.
Immigration Decline Lowers Workforce Numbers Across Key Industries
The decrease in immigration—driven by heightened deportations, stricter border control, and reduced legal entries—has begun to cut into the availability of labor.Â
Net migration is projected to fall to an annualized 500,000 by the end of the year and remain near that level until at least 2028, according to Oxford Economics. With fewer immigrants entering or remaining in the country, sectors dependent on physical labor and lower-wage roles are feeling the impact.
Immigrant workers, while representing around 20% of the U.S. labor force overall, are essential to specific sectors. Nearly half of the workforce in farming, fishing, and forestry are immigrants. In construction, they make up about 30%, and in service industries, about 24%.
Hiring Challenges Mount as Labor Pool Shrinks
Labor shortages are now surfacing in regions and industries that lean heavily on immigrant labor. In areas such as McAllen, Texas, and Ventura County, California, agricultural production has slowed due to insufficient labor during key harvest periods. In some cases, crops were left to spoil in the fields.
Construction has also taken a hit, with job losses reported in metropolitan areas like Riverside and Los Angeles. In many cases, enforcement actions by immigration authorities at worksites and public spaces have led to fear and reduced worker availability. Employers are reporting growing difficulty in finding reliable, willing labor, especially in hands-on roles.
Economic Data Shows Slowing Momentum in Job Growth
While the immigrant labor loss represents a small portion of the total workforce—over 171 million—the consequences are measurable. Job growth has slowed significantly in recent months, with average monthly payroll gains falling to just 35,000 between May and July, down from 123,000 earlier in the year.
Economists note that immigrants often fall into the “prime working age” category (25 to 54), meaning they contribute heavily during their most productive years. Their willingness to relocate for job opportunities also helps balance regional labor markets—an increasingly important factor as domestic labor mobility has declined over the past few decades.
Worker Shortages May Be Worse Than They Appear
Some analysts warn that the ongoing reduction in immigrant labor may distort the appearance of the U.S. job market. With fewer people actively looking for work, the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers can appear tighter than it actually is. This may affect how institutions like the Federal Reserve interpret labor market strength when setting policy.
Oxford Economics researchers suggest that policymakers may need to look beyond headline job numbers, as immigration-related labor shortages complicate the picture of supply and demand in the workforce.
Strains Spread to Health Care and Domestic Services
Beyond agriculture and construction, sectors such as health care are also feeling pressure. Immigrants represent about 43% of home health aides, and many long-term care providers rely on an immigrant-majority workforce. In California, for instance, about half of SEIU 2015’s long-term care members are immigrants.
Without sufficient staffing, there is concern that the care infrastructure for aging and disabled Americans could come under serious strain. As immigration enforcement efforts continue—and potentially intensify with additional funding—these effects may deepen in the coming years.
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Labor Supply Faces Long-Term Uncertainty
With fewer immigrants entering the country and deportations on the rise, the labor supply is tightening in ways that may not be easily reversible. Whether in the fields, on construction sites, or in nursing homes, employers are grappling with a shortage of hands willing to do the work. The coming years may test the resilience of these industries and the policies that shape who is able—and allowed—to work in America.
