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An astonishing number of people in the U.K. are unable to work due to health issues, or are not meeting productivity levels seen in their European and American counterparts, according to a recent report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and Citi.
The report identifies rising worklessness among young people and stagnant productivity as major challenges for the U.K. workforce: since the Global Financial Crisis, productivity growth has stalled, reverting to rates not witnessed since the 1850s, leaving the U.K. trailing behind other nations that have bounced back more effectively from setbacks like the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Fortune.
The report states, “The recent decline in potential output per worker in the U.K. is unprecedented since the late 19th century,” describing the country’s economic performance over the last twenty years as a clear policy failure.
Economic activity is also a critical factor in overall growth, with IFS estimating that the U.K.’s GDP is 6.1% below its pre-pandemic trajectory — significantly lagging behind the eurozone.
In contrast to the 1990s and early 2000s, when the U.K.’s productivity was competitive, recent years have brought a decline — exacerbated by challenges such as the pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine.
This productivity crisis coincides with a surge in worklessness among younger individuals, with increasing numbers of “missing workers” aged 16 to 24, driven by deteriorating health and a competitive job market.
As the Labour government prepares for a highly anticipated budget focused on potential tax increases, the economic implications of these trends are critical to monitor. The U.K.’s attractiveness for foreign investment and public spending aimed at enhancing workforce skills has diminished, which could hinder its resilience to future economic shocks.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has described the economic situation inherited by the new government as the worst since World War II, attributing productivity issues to insufficient investment in business, which has left British households worse off than those in Germany and France.
Experts assert that improving productivity requires a long-term commitment to investing in skills and training, as well as enhancing job opportunities and healthcare access for younger generations.
The Bank of England’s interest rate decisions will also play a pivotal role in shaping the economy’s future. The Labour Party has pledged to prioritize “sustainable growth,” and with the upcoming budget announcement on October 30, it faces the challenge of outlining specific measures to tackle productivity and worklessness, aiming to stimulate economic growth.
