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Up to 30% of current work hours could be automated by 2030 — largely due to the advancement of generative AI (gen AI).
McKinsey Global Institute reports this shift will lead to approximately 12 million workers in both Europe and the U.S. needing to change jobs.
The report, “A new future of work: The race to deploy AI and raise skills in Europe and beyond,” also estimates that the demand for certain occupations, particularly those involving repetitive tasks such as food services, production work, customer services, sales, and office support, will decline.
Meanwhile, there will be an increase in demand for health professionals and STEM-related roles — with growth rates projected between 17% and 30%.
“Both regions navigated even higher levels of labor market shifts at the height of the COVID-19 period,” according to McKinsey’s report. “While these were abrupt and painful to many, given the forced nature of the shifts, the experience suggests that both regions have the ability to handle this scale of future job transitions.”
The data also reveals the high need for the global workforce to address the emerging skills gap. For example, demand technological skills are expected to see substantial growth in the coming years — with increases of 25% in Europe and 29% in the U.S. in hours worked by 2030 compared to 2022.
Social and emotional skills will also be in higher demand, estimated to rise by 11% in Europe and 14% in the U.S. during the same period.
Notably, the transition will not be uniform across all wage brackets. It’s reported that workers in lower-wage occupations are “three to five times more likely” to face job changes compared to the top earners in Europe, and “up to 14 times more likely” in the U.S.
To navigate these dramatic changes, some companies are prioritizing workforce retraining. On average, its reported executives plan to retrain 32% of their workforce in anticipation of the projected skills gap.
McKinsey advises companies to embrace four key priorities to ensure successful deployment of these technologies:
- Understanding the potential of AI and gen AI
- Planning for the strategic workforce shift
- Prioritizing people development (improving capabilities related to attraction and retention)
- Pursuing executive education on automation technologies.
By doing so, they can better prepare their organizations for AI-driven processes that are expected to dominate the labor market, and it will help address some the AI-related risks associated with labor market disruptions.
