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Although there is a growing interest among Gen Z and young millennials to enter skilled trades or pursue technical school, research shows a bachelor’s degree will still be required for well-paying jobs in the coming decade.
By 2031, a considerable majority of attractive roles will still require at least a bachelor’s degree, according to a report from Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW).
Despite increasing public doubts about the value of higher education, the majority of “good jobs,” or those defined by CEW as paying at least $43,000 nationally for workers aged 25–44 and $55,000 for workers aged 45–64, with a median salary of $82,000, are expected to have degree requirements.
In fact, the researchers estimate that by 2031, 66% of new jobs will demand a bachelor’s degree as a qualification requirement. In comparison, only 15% of those jobs will be available to workers with only a high school degree. A middle-skill pathway, or those whose jobs require education and training beyond a high school diploma but less than a four-year college degree, are expected to make up 19% of those jobs.
Inside Higher Ed reports that technological advancements and a shrinking labor force are factors adding to higher levels of education and training requirements for many good-paying jobs.
The research suggests that while alternative credentials like microcredentials have seen a rise in popularity in recent years, they are not expected to be as valuable as holding a bachelor’s degree when it comes to landing a highly sought after job.
“The managerial and professional office occupations will be the largest source of good jobs in 2031— accounting for nearly a third of all good jobs — and 84% of good managerial and professional office jobs will be on the bachelor’s degree pathway,” according to Georgetown University.
Jobs in STEM fields, healthcare, education, law, and business are also projected to be the most promising areas for bachelor’s degree holders, providing numerous opportunities to earn a salary sufficient to support a family.
The data highlights the disparity in job quality/salary-ranges based on education level. Even though some blue-collar jobs like welding, plumbing, and construction may provide good-paying opportunities, it’s reported that they still require some formal training beyond high school.
If workers want to land a remote job in the coming years, they’ll also greatly increase their odds with a college degree. Statista analyzed data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey and found that around 41% “of all survey participants with a bachelor’s degree or higher said they worked remotely full-time or in part during the week before being surveyed.” This figure is substantially different than those with only high school degrees, where 8.5% said they teleworked or worked at home for pay partially or full time.
As the job market evolves in the coming years, federal investments in infrastructure and the expansion of AI-related jobs and capabilities may affect the middle-skills labor market growth. Nonetheless, the overarching forecast remains clear: higher education, particularly a bachelor’s degree, will still be a viable path for workers looking to secure good jobs in the future.
