Global Leaders Grapple With AI’s Economic Impact: IMF Reports It Will Affect 40% Jobs

The rapid development of artificial intelligence is expected to be a hot topic at this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland — which started on Jan. 15.  

Prior to departing for the conference, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Kristalina Georgieva stated in an interview with AFP that AI is expected to affect 60% of jobs in advanced economies, and around 40% of jobs globally.  

Georgieva cited these figures from a recent analysis published by the IMF, titled “Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work.” 

The analysis adds to the mounting data suggesting the growing and pervasive influence of AI technology across different industries and jobs. However, the overall future impact of AI is not 100% negative. While it’s highly likely that jobs will disappear, others are expected to further develop and adapt, and new roles are expected to be created — benefiting from AI-driven productivity enhancements.  

According to Deloitte’s recent State of Generative AI in the Enterprise Quarter one report, “Nearly two-thirds (62%) of the business and technology leaders surveyed reported excitement as a top sentiment with regard to generative AI; however, that excitement was tinged with uncertainty (30%). The vast majority of respondents (79%) said they expect generative AI to drive substantial transformation within their organization and industry over the next three years — with nearly a third expecting substantial transformation to occur now (14%) or in less than one year (17%).” 

However, Georgieva’s insights present a more nuanced view of AI’s impact on global employment, and it suggests there are major challenges and guardrail/ethical opportunities for global leaders and policy makers. All reasons why AI is expected to be a hot topic in Davos this week.  

In fact, 66% of 1,400 C-Suite executives in a recent survey published by The Boston Consulting Group are either ambivalent or dissatisfied with the progress their companies have made regarding AI and generative AI technology. According to BCG, “More than 60% of executives surveyed say their firms are still waiting to see how AI-specific regulations develop.” 

The recent IMF report suggests that only around half of the affected jobs will experience negative impacts. In her AFP interview, Georgieva mentioned that the other half of the affected workforce could see productivity gains that lead to higher income levels and higher job satisfaction.  

It’s worth nothing that emerging markets and developing economies will likely witness a “smaller initial impact from AI,” but are less likely to reap the productivity benefits. This disparity uncovers a need for a more focused approach to help lower-income countries harness AI’s opportunities in the coming years.