States that were significantly impacted by the pandemic are not seeing a mass exodus, but recovery will look different across various large cities.
For instance, analysts from Placer.ai call the respective 2.5% and 2% population dip that New York and California experienced from May 2019 to May 2021 “a limited loss.”
However, major cities like New York City and San Francisco have seen month-over-month decreases over the past year. San Francisco in particular could see noteworthy outcomes.
“While these are not massive population shifts, even small changes in a highly competitive professional market like San Francisco can be hugely significant,” Ethan Chernofsky, VP of Marketing at Placer.ai, wrote in an analysis from last month. “The spread of potentially high-skilled professionals who are in ever increasing demand may create opportunities for businesses centered in these other cities or add further fuel to a growing ‘work from anywhere’ trend.”
On the other hand, the future is looking more promising for New York. Data from Placer.ai finds that a dip in rental prices is bringing those living in outer boroughs into the heart of the city.
According to Chernofsky, this can “have major implications for retail, and actually deepen a city like New York’s role as a ‘center of orbit.’”
