Half Of U.S. Labor Markets Could Collapse By 2031

A recent study shows half of all local U.S. labor markets will fail to meet their workforce needs by 2031 due to a large mismatch between the supply of middle-skills credentials and the demands of the job market.  

The Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW)’s recent report called “The Great Misalignment” points to this skills gap as a critical risk for the future of the workforce. 

“Los Angeles. Atlanta. Savannah. Pittsburgh. Hundreds of local labor markets fuel the American economy, and each one is driven by the needs of the local area’s mix of industries and the skills of its workers,” according to the report’s summary. “When these needs and skills align, everyone can benefit. But many local economies are struggling to achieve strong alignment between the demand for middle-skills credentials (certificates and associate’s degrees) and the supply of these credentials produced by local institutions.” 

Despite an increasing number of Americans obtaining education beyond a high school diploma, the report shows that 50% of local labor markets are not on track to meet labor demands. The study, covering 565 local labor markets, shows that at least half of the middle-skills credentials conferred will need to be “granted in different fields of study to meet projected labor demand through 2031.” 

The data shows the misalignment is more profound in rural areas that have fewer educational institutions and, consequently, fewer opportunities for individuals to acquire relevant skills.  

The skills divide also varies dramatically depending on racial and ethnic demographics. The study found that American Indian, Alaska Native, and Hispanic/Latino adults more likely to live in regions with poor alignment between education and employment. 

In a report published by Coastal Breeze News, Zack Mabel, a research professor and one of the authors of the report, notes that employers in poorly aligned markets struggle to recruit skilled workers — which leads to inefficiencies and stunted economic growth.  

It’s reported that individuals, particularly recent college graduates, may find themselves underemployed or facing limited job opportunities in fields for which they trained. In fact, a report published by the Strada Education Foundation and Burning Glass Institute reveals 52% of recent four-year college graduates are underemployed within a year of graduating from college as they struggle to find employment that matches their education level.   

A notable finding from the report is the underproduction of middle-skills credentials conferred for jobs that are expected to be in high demand. For example, 23% of future job openings for middle-skills workers are projected to be in blue-collar fields, yet only 12% of the necessary credentials are being conferred. On the flip side, there is an overproduction of middle-skills credentials in the managerial and professional office field, despite fewer job openings in these areas for middle-skills workers. 

The CEW report recommends several strategies to address this misalignment, including improvements to coordination between educational institutions and employers, improving data practices, and investing in career preparation and counseling services.